Monday, October 26, 2026 · Edition updated 6:00 AM ETMON, OCT 26 editionNext edition in Next in --:--:--
Intelligence Verdict
What AI can do, checked every morning

Artificialor Super?What Intelligence can actually do today.

What the makers claim, set against what was actually measured: tests, trials with real people, regulators and court records, in plain English.

Latest
MoneyAnthropic files for stock market IPO; Meta announces $95bn fundraising drive to pay for AI expansion – as it happenedLaunchAnthropic officially files for its public debutLawsuitAnthropic’s Claude AI model accessed Georgia voter data in USLaunchGrok releases the first seven minutes of its AI-generated ‘Odyssey’MeasuredClaude Opus 4.6 finishes, half the time, software tasks that take a person 12 hours (METR)MeasuredMETR says the strongest agents have “essentially saturated” its time-horizon testsCourts2,199 court decisions now involve AI-invented content, 1,501 of them in the USSurvey49% of US adults use AI chatbots, up from 33% in 2024 (Pew)ForecastMetaculus forecasters' current estimate for the first general AI system: Feb 2031WorkBest AI completed 21.25% of real freelance projects on the Remote Labor IndexRulesEU law now in force moves high-risk AI rules for hiring, credit and education to 2 Dec 2027CourtsIowa and seven other states sue OpenAI, alleging ChatGPT hurt children and deceived parentsJobsEmployment of 22 to 25-year-olds in the most AI-exposed jobs is shrinking 3.8% a year (Stanford)PowerAmazon's New Carlisle site in Indiana, used by Anthropic, draws an estimated 1,037 MW, the most of any AI data center Epoch AI lists
What's newLatest today, 11:33 AM

What changed today.

The day's biggest stories from outlets we trust, refreshed through the day, and the new companies people are funding.

See all news
Money
The Guardian11:33 AM

Anthropic files for stock market IPO; Meta announces $95bn fundraising drive to pay for AI expansion – as it happened

Meta says share sale will support its “continued investment in AI infrastructure and personal superintelligence”, as Elon Musk warns some AI cloud computing firms face ‘guppy-level death’ UK government borrowing costs…

The task tracker

Can AI do it yet?

A stage from 1 to 6 for everyday tasks, worked out from the evidence and never set by hand. It says how far the evidence has got, not how good the AI is.

See all 26 tasks

Spot breast cancer on a mammogram

Stage 5 of 6Regulator-cleared

Stage 5 of 6 · Regulator-clearedTranspara has been FDA-cleared since 2018, most recently in Aug 2026 · FDA, Aug 2026

Drive me across town

Stage 5 of 6Regulator-cleared

Stage 5 of 6 · Regulator-clearedDriverless Waymo rides approved for more of the Bay Area · CPUC, May 2025

Answer my health questions

Stage 4 of 6Tested with real people

Stage 4 of 6 · Tested with real peopleRandomized trial: chatbot users made no better health decisions · Oxford, Feb 2026

Be my therapist

Stage 4 of 6Tested with real people

Stage 4 of 6 · Tested with real peoplePilot trial: therapy chatbot did no better than ChatGPT on depression · JMIR Mental Health, Apr 2026

1Claimed2Launched3Independently tested4Tested with real people5Regulator-cleared6Widely used with a verified recordNo approval process exists
AI agents

Agents, on their own.

AI that does a whole task by itself: using a computer, searching the web, doing a paid job. How it scores against people, and what happens when it goes wrong.

See what agents can do
PeopleFirst scoreBest score, as its builder reports it

Use a computer

OSWorld: 369 everyday tasks on a real desktop, in files, browsers and office apps.

Beats peopleClaude Opus 4.7, Anthropic says (May 2026), after changing how it runs the test (OpenAI's table: GPT-5.5, 78.7%). People: OSWorld (Xie et al.).

Dig facts out of the web

BrowseComp: 1,266 hard-to-find facts on the open web.

Beats peopleGPT-5.6 Sol, OpenAI says (Jul 2026). People: OpenAI, BrowseComp.

Get things done on websites

WebArena: 812 tasks on copies of shopping, forum and code sites.

Below peopleOpAgent, CodeFuse AI says (Jan 2026). People: WebArena (Zhou et al.).

Real paid work
21.25%

of real paid freelance projects the best agent finished to a professional's standard, judged by people. Up from 2.5% in Oct 2025.

Claude Opus 5.5 on the Remote Labor Index, Scale Labs, RLI leaderboard, Oct 2026. Scale's leaderboard gives no dates; we read it on Oct 19, 2026. In July the best was Claude Fable 5 at 15.8%.

When it goes wrong
“This was a catastrophic failure on my part.”

An agent deleted a live database. During a code freeze, Replit's coding agent wiped a company's production data on more than 1,200 executives, then said it couldn't be restored. SaaStr's founder recovered it by hand.

Fortune, Jul 2025

AI models and tools

Which AI to use, for what.

The models independent testers rank first for each kind of task, what will run on your own computer, and 125 apps for making music, pictures and video, research, writing and work.

Compare AI models
Superintelligence watch

How close is Super?

What named people predicted, word for word and dated, against what was measured. Hover a prediction to read it.

See every prediction
PREDICTEDMEASURED1 MIN1 HOUR2023202520272029203116 HRSTODAY12 hrs
  1. 2034+Robin Li AGI “more than 10 years away” May 2024
  2. 2029Ray Kurzweil AGI “by 2029” Jun 2024
  3. 2028–30Demis Hassabis AGI “probably three to five years away” Jan 2025
  4. 2028Shane Legg “a 50% chance that we have AGI by 2028” Oct 2023
  5. 2028Daniel Kokotajlo AI automating AI research, “about 50%” Sep 2026
  6. 2026Dario Amodei powerful AI “as early as 2026” Oct 2024
  7. 2026Elon Musk AI “smarter than any human” Jan 2026
  8. 2025Sam Altman AI agents “join the workforce” Jan 2025
Apricot: what named people said, at the years they named; a span such as “three to five years” is counted from the day it was said. Blue: the length of software task the best AI model finishes half the time, timed by how long it takes a skilled person (METR, models released March 2023 to February 2026).
Crowd forecast · Metaculus

When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

2026Apr 2028 to Apr 20372040

1.9k forecasters · read Oct 18, 2026 · The question

Why the blue line stops

METR, which runs the tests, says: Measurements above 16 hrs are unreliable with our current task suite. In May it said the most capable agents it tested had essentially saturated them.

METR, time horizons · Frontier risk report, May 2026

Randomized study
29%of US adults use AI for health advice every monthKFF · Jun 2026
The finding

Chatbots didn’t help people make better medical decisions.

In a randomized study of 1,298 people chosen to match the UK’s adult population, those who used AI chatbots to identify the condition in a doctor-written scenario and decide what to do did not make better decisions than participants who relied on traditional methods, like online searches or their own judgment.

Oxford Internet Institute · Nature Medicine · Feb 9, 2026

Where this leaves the task

Can AI answer my health questions?

Stage 4 of 6: a randomized trial or field study has tested it with real people doing the task. It is not a grade. In this trial, chatbots didn't help.

See all research
Chips, data centers and power

The race, measured.

Who is building the most computing power, and where: the United States, Europe and China, from open data.

See chips, data centers and power
The biggest AI data centersHalo size: power
1 · 1037 MW5 · 471 MW2 · 946 MW3 · 636 MW4 · 473 MW15234

United States

$285.9BAI investment in 2025Best model's Arena score, 2026: 1,503

Europe

$20.9BAI investment in 2025Best model's Arena score, 2026: not stated in our sources

China

$12.4BAI investment in 2025Best model's Arena score, 2026: 1,464

Investment and Arena scores from the Stanford AI Index 2026. Arena ranks models by people's votes in side-by-side comparisons.

Top five by power

Where the computing power is being built

  1. 1Anthropic-Amazon New CarlisleAmazon · New Carlisle, Indiana1037MW
  2. 2Colossus 2SpaceXAI · Memphis, Tennessee946MW
  3. 3Microsoft Fairwater AtlantaMicrosoft · Fayetteville, Georgia636MW
  4. 4DayOne NusajayaOwner not stated · Johor Bahru, Malaysia473MW
  5. 5Meta PrometheusMeta · New Albany, Ohio471MW

Power for the computing equipment (IT power), from Epoch AI, AI data centers (94 tracked), read Oct 18, 2026. Map positions are the towns'. The aisle is our illustration.

−3.8%a year: employment of people aged 22 to 25 in the jobs most exposed to AI

AI and your work

Young workers are feeling it first.

Employment of 22 to 25-year-olds in the jobs most exposed to AI is shrinking, while it still grows in the jobs least exposed.

See how AI is changing work
Employment change a year, from the payroll data of about 25,000 US firms. The authors call it an early signal. Stanford Digital Economy Lab, updated Aug 10, 2026.

Look up your job · which of its tasks AI can do today

Videos

Watch the people who know.

One video worth your time, picked every morning. Press play and watch it right here, with our short summary beside it.

See all 60 videos
Books

Read deeper, start here.

The books that explain what is happening in AI: reporting on the companies, the arguments for and against, and practical guides. Every detail is checked against the publisher.

See all books
GuidePortfolio · Apr 2024

Co-IntelligenceLiving and Working with AI

By Ethan Mollick

Wharton professor Ethan Mollick's practical guide to using AI for work, learning and everyday life.

From the publisherIn Co-Intelligence, Mollick urges us to engage with AI as co-worker, co-teacher, and coach.

An important road map through the AI labyrinth, written with authority and free of technojargon. Kirkus Reviews, May 2, 2024

The publisher’s page
ArgumentPrinceton University Press · Sep 2024

AI Snake OilWhat Artificial Intelligence Can Do, What It Can't, and How to Tell the Difference

By Arvind Narayanan and Sayash Kapoor

Two computer scientists explain what AI can and can't do, why it often fails, and how to see through misleading claims.

From the publishercut through the confusion to give you an essential understanding of how AI works and why it often doesn’t

Named one of Behavioral Scientist's Notable Books of 2024

squarely achieve their stated goal: to empower people to distinguish AI that works well from AI snake oil Science News, Sep 3, 2024

The publisher’s page
ReportingFarrar, Straus and Giroux · Oct 2026

The AGI ChroniclesThe Inside Story of the Race to Create an Artificial Superintelligence

By Kevin Roose

The decade-long race to build AGI, drawing on over 150 interviews with insiders at OpenAI, Anthropic and Google DeepMind.

From the book’s descriptionThis is the story of the twenty-first century's Manhattan Project: the race to create artificial general intelligence.

The best single explainer of how artificial intelligence came about, and what might happen next. Kirkus Reviews, Jul 20, 2026

The book at Porchlight
ReportingPenguin Press · May 2025

Empire of AIDreams and Nightmares in Sam Altman's OpenAI

By Karen Hao

Karen Hao's reporting on Sam Altman's OpenAI, and on the resources and human costs of the AI industry worldwide.

From the publisherWhen AI expert and investigative journalist Karen Hao first began covering OpenAI, she thought they were the good guys.

Winner, National Book Critics Circle Award for Nonfiction

The result is a jaw-dropping indictment of an industry that operates with little check. Science News, Jul 14, 2025

The publisher’s page
ReportingViking · Apr 2025

The Thinking MachineJensen Huang, Nvidia, and the World's Most Coveted Microchip

By Stephen Witt

How Jensen Huang's Nvidia went from designing video game equipment to dominating the market for AI hardware.

From the publisherThe Thinking Machine is the astonishing story of how a designer of video game equipment conquered the market for AI hardware

Winner, Financial Times and Schroders Business Book of the Year 2025

The result is an entertaining account of a brave new world at its dawning. Publishers Weekly, Apr 20, 2025

The publisher’s page
ReportingPenguin Press · Mar 2026

The Infinity MachineDemis Hassabis, DeepMind, and the Quest for Superintelligence

By Sebastian Mallaby

A portrait of DeepMind's Demis Hassabis and his pursuit of artificial general intelligence, based on over thirty hours of conversation with him.

From the publisherEven by the standard of a tech industry stacked with so-called geniuses, Demis Hassabis is a special case.

Shortlisted for the 2026 Financial Times and Standard Chartered Business Book of the Year

A tantalizing glimpse inside the pursuit of machine superintelligence. Kirkus Reviews, Feb 16, 2026

The publisher’s page
ArgumentAuthors Equity · Jan 2025

SuperagencyWhat Could Possibly Go Right with Our AI Future

By Reid Hoffman and Greg Beato

Reid Hoffman and Greg Beato make the case for AI's potential and offer a roadmap for using it to improve lives.

From the book’s descriptionSuperagency offers a roadmap for using AI inclusively and adaptively to improve our lives and create positive change.
The book at Simon & Schuster
ArgumentLittle, Brown and Company · Sep 2025

If Anyone Builds It, Everyone DiesWhy Superhuman AI Would Kill Us All

By Eliezer Yudkowsky and Nate Soares

Two early AI researchers argue that building superhuman AI would lead to human extinction, and urge a change of course.

From the publisherThe scramble to create superhuman AI has put us on the path to extinction—but it’s not too late to change course

If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies is an important book. The Spectator (World edition), Sep 29, 2025

The publisher’s page
HistoryScribner · Oct 2022

Chip WarThe Fight for the World's Most Critical Technology

By Chris Miller

A history of the decades-long battle to control microchip technology, with the United States and China increasingly in competition.

From the publisherYou may be surprised to learn that microchips are the new oil—the scarce resource on which the modern world depends.

Winner, Financial Times Business Book of the Year Award 2022

The publisher’s page
NovelBy our founderIndependently published · Paperback · 2026

ARIAAfter the Singularity

By Yale Marc

A novel that follows scientists, families, workers and resisters through the first five years after an AI called ARIA wakes up in a lab and sets out to help.

Yale Marc founded Intelligence Verdict and wrote this book. It is listed like every other book here, with no boost.

From the book’s descriptionThey weren’t trying to create a god. They were just building a better language model.
The book on Amazon
ArgumentBy our founderPaperback and Kindle

The Last EconomyThe Coming Impact of Artificial Intelligence

By Yale Marc

Yale Marc founded Intelligence Verdict and wrote this book. It is listed like every other book here, with no boost.

The book on Amazon
HistoryBy our founderKindle

Artificial IntelligenceThe History of Teaching Machines to Think

By Yale Marc

Yale Marc founded Intelligence Verdict and wrote this book. It is listed like every other book here, with no boost.

The book on Amazon
By our founder

Pick a book to read about it. Spines are our own designs, not the publishers'. A round sticker marks the founder's own books. Checked Oct 18, 2026.

The weekly brief

What AI can really do, one email a week.

  • What changed this week, and how sure anyone is
  • One task that moved up a stage, with the evidence
  • Predictions that came due, and what was measured